general thoughts


Good morning and greetings to you. Today, I will try to answer a question that I got yesterday: Why I feel that niche is imploding, and not exploding. The picture in this post: A photo of an ad that made me dream: A train ride over the Bernina, in a full moon night. I will upload it on pinterest, now. For Sotto la luna.

Wikipedia defines implosion in the following way: “Implosion is a process in which objects are destroyed by collapsing (or being squeezed in) on themselves. The opposite of explosion, implosion concentrates matter and energy. True implosion usually involves a difference between internal (lower) and external (higher) pressure, or inward and outward forces, that is so large that the structure collapses inward into itself.”

I think this definition is correct. The answer to the question “why implosion” lies in the perspective. If you look at the niche market right now and place the clients of niche in the middle of the system, clients buying niche in the middle of the system, then you see: The market is imploding and in destruction mode as the internal pressure by clients (other words: buying power, need, interest) is lower than the external pressure, coming from new brands and products. More and more niche brands head towards a client base that does not grow really, and with more and more products pushing into it, the niche market will collapse. Collapse means: The system gets unstable, brands disappear, clients move away from niche, and some brands will move forward, outward. And then, things look differently.

Signs on the wall, for what happens these days, are there. Discounts, comments by perfume lovers, sales figures…

I actually can directly feel it too: There used to be a time when I was visiting perfumeries and was anxiously expecting news. I haven’t visited a perfumery with real interest, really, in the last few months. But I have my brands that I follow. There I am loyal and keen; but most of what happens these days goes by unnoticed by me. Why is this? It is because I got disappointed too often in the past. And I cannot take anybody seriously anymore who launches more than a couple of fragrances at once.

There are a couple of brands who counteract: They do not move inwards (towards niche clients) but move away (towards the more mass market). Like Dyptique.

Worries here? No, not really. It is just an observation that things change and a seemingly stable system is starting to move.